Interactive Demo
Paris, France · 2050 · SSP2-4.5
Pre-loaded with real CMIP6 projections. Adjust the sliders to see what intervention achieves.
Phase 01 — Without intervention
Baseline risk
What happens to Paris if nothing changes. Projected values for 2050 under a moderate emissions pathway.
42.1°C
Peak temperature
vs 24.2°C historical
31d/yr
Heatwave days
days above P95 threshold
4,800
Attributable deaths
Gasparrini (2017) est.
$28.4B
Economic loss
Burke (2018) + ILO est.
Wet-bulb temperature
29.4°C
Danger zone begins at 28°C. At 31°C+ unprotected outdoor exposure becomes fatal within hours.
Stull (2011) · Sherwood and Huber (2010)
All figures are research-grade estimates. Mortality plus or minus 15% CI. Economics plus or minus 8% CI. Not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Phase 02 — With intervention
What can we change?
Adjust urban tree cover and reflective roofing. See the direct impact on temperature, deaths, and economic loss. Formulas match the full engine exactly.
Urban tree cover
Bowler et al. (2010) · 1.2°C per 100%
Cool / reflective roofs
Santamouris (2015) · 0.8°C per 100%
Total cooling
-0.50°C
= canopy (0.18°C) + albedo (0.32°C)
Deaths / year
Economic loss
Peak temperature
Heatwave days
9%
mortality reduction
At +15% tree cover and +40% cool roofs, 452 fewer people die from heat in Paris every year by 2050. This uses the same calculation as the full engine — Gasparrini (2017) mortality model scaled by heatwave reduction.
Formula: Deaths = Base x hwRatio x (1 - cooling x 0.08) where cooling = (canopy/100)x1.2 + (albedo/100)x0.8, hwRatio = effectiveHW / baseHW. Source: Bowler (2010) · Santamouris (2015) · Gasparrini (2017). Plus or minus 15% confidence interval applies.
Run this for your city.
Real CMIP6 data · Any city on Earth · Full methodology visible